Another great day at AUVSI here in Las Vegas. One major difference I’ve seen at this show versus last year in Washington, DC, is that there are far less members of the US military present (wondering if other attendees have felt that too?). The DoD placed restrictions on government travel this year and, unfortunately, many of the operators who would have attended in the past were unable to make it. My suggestions for AUVSI – keep it in DC!

Shortly after lunch, I sat in on a panel discussion about current UAV challenges and what industry is doing to develop tomorrow’s solutions.

Maj. Gen. James Poss mentioned how important UAVs and ISR have been to the DoD. He stated that the USAF budget for ISR has increased from 3% in 2001 to 11% in 2012. In addition, he said there has been a 4,300% increase in ISR flight hours since 2001. Much of that is due to the exponential growth the total number of UAVs in the DoD inventory – from 167 in 2007 to over 7,500 today.

Duke Dufrense, sector VP and GM of UAS at Northrop Grumman, stressed the need to increase the amount of foreign military sales (FMS) of UAVs so that overall costs could be reduced. He said that the weaponization of UAVs is one of the primary barriers to increasing FMS. In addition, Duke stated that FMS restrictions are allowing foreign competitors to fill gaps that US UAV OEMs could fill today.

Among all the discussions I’ve had and the presentations I’ve attended, I keep hearing about the many opportunities for civil UAV applications. Although I don’t doubt there is opportunity in this industry, I’m perhaps not as optimistic as others in terms of how quickly and how large the market segment will be in the near-term.

One huge barrier is integrating UAVs into the national airspace. The current timeline is still set for September of 2015, but I’m certainly not alone in thinking that this date is incredibly aggressive. I don’t expect integration until the latter part of this decade.

The second barrier to growing the civil UAV industry is the market itself! In other words, I don’t see a strong demand from industry for civil UAVs. There are certainly a variety of applications — everything from police surveillance to agricultural analysis to oil pipeline monitoring — but, to my knowledge, I have yet to see pull from any one sector that would make a valid business case for civil UAVs.

The day was capped off with Craig Hoover giving a presentation on UAS flight in the national airspace. For a more in-depth look at his content, click on the following link to his white paper.

UAS in the NAS

More to follow as things wrap up.

For real-time information on presentations and discussions, make sure to follow me on Twitter at @MarcLuley.

Fly safe,

Marc

It may have been only the first day of the AUVSI exhibit and conference here in Las Vegas, but with all the activity already taking place it sure hasn’t felt that way. I’ll cover some of the highlights below, but for up-to-date information on AUVSI and the military market in general, follow me on Twitter @MarcLuley.

I started off the week on Monday afternoon attending a presentation about the importance of UAS lifecycle management. The panel emphasized a few points: 1) more focus will be placed on UAV defensive systems going forward in order to adjust to non-permissive environments, 2) the civil market for UAVs will remain relatively small until lifecycle costs can be decreased, and 3) as budgets decrease and flight hours follow, UAV simulation will become more prevalent for both operators and maintainers.

On Tuesday, I sat in on a panel discussion about UAS industry growth and the changing climate. The speakers were Ron Steans from G2 Solutions, Derrick Maple from IHS Janes, and Phil Finnegan from the Teal Group.

Ron brought up an interesting point around DoD funding for UAVs. In terms of procurement, the DoD budget for program of record UAVs will go down substantially through 2017. However, the R&D budget will go up through the same time period to prepare for the next generation of platforms.

Derrick mentioned that although US operators currently account for 2/3 of the market place, that will decrease going forward as emerging market leaders (e.g., China, Russia, South Korea, and India) gain more of a presence. Moreover, these countries are also building their own indigenous capabilities to manufacture and market UAVs.

Phil talked about forecasted trends in terms of type of UAVs (e.g., HALES, MALES, etc.), how much different countries would spend, and what some of the barriers to entry will continue to be. In the near term with budget constraints domestically and abroad, established OEMs will have a much better chance of maintaining their market share versus new entrants.

Also on Tuesday, GE Aviation Systems presented two of our leading technologies to the open forum on the exhibition floor.

Sam Lassini, Chief Application Engineering for Mission Systems, discussed our innovative SPC (Store Payload Controller) solution for micro-munitions implementation on tactical UAVs. Click on the following link to read more about this SPC.

SPC AUVSI

Mike Feldmann, Chief Engineer for Refueling Technologies, talked about our approach to UAV air-to-air refueling, a technology we call EOGRS (Electro-Optical Grid Reference System). Click on the following link to read more about EOGRS.

EOGRS AUVSI

Tomorrow, I’ll make sure to cover the highlights from some of the other panel sessions and GE Aviation Systems presentations.

Fly safe,

Marc

EAA/Oshkosh dubs itself as “the world’s greatest aviation celebration” and any aviation enthusiast who has been lucky enough to go there would likely concur. Perhaps it’s the sheer number and variety of aircraft present, or the impressive show that EAA puts together each year. Personally, the creative ideas and new products that the attendees bring to Wittman field rank very highly: they infuse a great deal of enthusiasm into an already electrifying atmosphere.

During our week-long exhibit, GE showcased some of its more recent products, such as the H80 turboprop engine, and our Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) system.

I have talked to you about IVHM in my recent posts and the response that we have been getting from industry leaders has been tremendous, so I thought I’d share with you some of the slides that we presented at Oshkosh.

IVHM Oshkosh

As you may expect, many of the aircraft health management questions that we have been posed recently revolve around the possibility of reducing delays and improving the efficiency of maintenance operations. They can generally be categorized into three main areas. First, operators and airframers alike are interested in solutions that can not only gather data, but also analyze it. Second, they want to harness the computing technology of such systems to potentially uncover issues before they occur (prognostics). Finally, they want to ensure that the data is protected from unauthorized access.

I am obviously pleased by the fact that GE’s IVHM addresses all three areas. Moreover I am excited by the fact that the world of aviation is becoming increasingly savvy about the potential to channel today’s technology towards improving the experience of flying.

It will be interesting to see what the creative minds of industry players will bring to Oshkosh next year.

Raf.

Boarded a plane recently? You’ve no doubt noticed that air traffic delays are bad, and they’re only getting worse — much worse. In 2009, 100 million system delay minutes cost U.S. passenger airlines nearly $6.1 billion, and those numbers just keep on rising.

One thing’s for certain: We need technology to rescue our struggling air travel system. And one such technology is GE’s Required Navigation Performance (RNP) landing approaches. This technology lets planes fly precisely-defined flight paths without relying on outdated, ground-based radio navigation — rather, it works with precise satellite navigation and advanced tech aboard the aircraft, creating shorter and more efficient flight paths that reduce delays and alleviate air traffic.

According to a new study (http://www.geaviation.com/aboutgeae/presscenter/pdf/GE_study.pdf ), Highways in the Sky, deploying RNP at 46 mid-size U.S. airports could save the following:
12.9 million gallons of fuel, 274.6 million pounds of carbon dioxide, 17,900 hours and $65.6 million in operational costs.

For more information, visit: http://www.gereports.com/see-what-more-efficient-air-travel-looks-like/.