The last day here at AUVSI in Las Vegas. All in all, a great venue and a fantastic opportunity to connect with the various segments of the UAV community.

Before the event started on Monday, I have to admit I was a bit concerned that industry presence would be down this year given the continuing economic uncertainty. I’m happy to report, however, that the exhibit floor has been buzzing with activity all week and the GE Aviation Systems booth has seen a tremendous amount of foot traffic.

As I mentioned in my blog yesterday, the one big difference between this year’s show and last year’s in Washington, DC, is the lack of uniformed military personnel. The DoD has obvious budget constraints and travel amongst our service men and women has been severely limited. It’s absolutely critical to get their insight with regards to what works, what doesn’t, and how the platforms and systems can be improved.

As I’ve walked through the exhibitor floor, I’ve seen an emphasis placed on sensor payloads, digital processing, data links. To me, this makes perfect sense given the DoD’s continued challenge to industry to help solve the issue with PED (Processing, Exploitation, and Dissemination). As retired General Dave Deptula famously said several years ago, “We’re swimming in sensors and drowning in data.”

Another interesting aspect of the show has been the involvement from the academic part of the industry (e.g., Oklahoma State University, Embry-Riddle, etc.) and various state economic development groups (e.g., Ohio, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Florida, etc.). More and more universities are conducting UAV research and at some point next year the FAA will announce which states will be named as UAV test sites. They are planning for six across the US.

If I had to pick a couple parts of our booth that have truly stood out and resulted in excellent conversation pieces, I’d choose our EOGRS (Electro-Optical Grid Reference System) drogue and our large-screen display covering the platforms to which we provide systems. The display has also been running a continuous loop of a short UAV video that highlights GE Aviation’s continued presence in this growing part of the military market.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

We also gave one final presentation to the public at the “Beyond the Booth” forum. Peter DeBock from the GRC discussed thermal management solutions for UAV applications. Click on the following link for a more in-depth look at Peter’s presentation.

AUVSI Thermal Management

To wrap, it’s been an outstanding four days to connect with the key stakeholders of the UAV industry, gain insights into the current challenges, and discuss our perspective on how GE Aviation Systems is committed to providing new and innovative solutions for UAV operators, manufacturers, and suppliers.

Fly safe,

Marc

Another great day at AUVSI here in Las Vegas. One major difference I’ve seen at this show versus last year in Washington, DC, is that there are far less members of the US military present (wondering if other attendees have felt that too?). The DoD placed restrictions on government travel this year and, unfortunately, many of the operators who would have attended in the past were unable to make it. My suggestions for AUVSI – keep it in DC!

Shortly after lunch, I sat in on a panel discussion about current UAV challenges and what industry is doing to develop tomorrow’s solutions.

Maj. Gen. James Poss mentioned how important UAVs and ISR have been to the DoD. He stated that the USAF budget for ISR has increased from 3% in 2001 to 11% in 2012. In addition, he said there has been a 4,300% increase in ISR flight hours since 2001. Much of that is due to the exponential growth the total number of UAVs in the DoD inventory – from 167 in 2007 to over 7,500 today.

Duke Dufrense, sector VP and GM of UAS at Northrop Grumman, stressed the need to increase the amount of foreign military sales (FMS) of UAVs so that overall costs could be reduced. He said that the weaponization of UAVs is one of the primary barriers to increasing FMS. In addition, Duke stated that FMS restrictions are allowing foreign competitors to fill gaps that US UAV OEMs could fill today.

Among all the discussions I’ve had and the presentations I’ve attended, I keep hearing about the many opportunities for civil UAV applications. Although I don’t doubt there is opportunity in this industry, I’m perhaps not as optimistic as others in terms of how quickly and how large the market segment will be in the near-term.

One huge barrier is integrating UAVs into the national airspace. The current timeline is still set for September of 2015, but I’m certainly not alone in thinking that this date is incredibly aggressive. I don’t expect integration until the latter part of this decade.

The second barrier to growing the civil UAV industry is the market itself! In other words, I don’t see a strong demand from industry for civil UAVs. There are certainly a variety of applications — everything from police surveillance to agricultural analysis to oil pipeline monitoring — but, to my knowledge, I have yet to see pull from any one sector that would make a valid business case for civil UAVs.

The day was capped off with Craig Hoover giving a presentation on UAS flight in the national airspace. For a more in-depth look at his content, click on the following link to his white paper.

UAS in the NAS

More to follow as things wrap up.

For real-time information on presentations and discussions, make sure to follow me on Twitter at @MarcLuley.

Fly safe,

Marc

 

 

It may have been only the first day of the AUVSI exhibit and conference here in Las Vegas, but with all the activity already taking place it sure hasn’t felt that way. I’ll cover some of the highlights below, but for up-to-date information on AUVSI and the military market in general, follow me on Twitter @MarcLuley.

I started off the week on Monday afternoon attending a presentation about the importance of UAS lifecycle management. The panel emphasized a few points: 1) more focus will be placed on UAV defensive systems going forward in order to adjust to non-permissive environments, 2) the civil market for UAVs will remain relatively small until lifecycle costs can be decreased, and 3) as budgets decrease and flight hours follow, UAV simulation will become more prevalent for both operators and maintainers.

On Tuesday, I sat in on a panel discussion about UAS industry growth and the changing climate. The speakers were Ron Steans from G2 Solutions, Derrick Maple from IHS Janes, and Phil Finnegan from the Teal Group.

Ron brought up an interesting point around DoD funding for UAVs. In terms of procurement, the DoD budget for program of record UAVs will go down substantially through 2017. However, the R&D budget will go up through the same time period to prepare for the next generation of platforms.

Derrick mentioned that although US operators currently account for 2/3 of the market place, that will decrease going forward as emerging market leaders (e.g., China, Russia, South Korea, and India) gain more of a presence. Moreover, these countries are also building their own indigenous capabilities to manufacture and market UAVs.

Phil talked about forecasted trends in terms of type of UAVs (e.g., HALES, MALES, etc.), how much different countries would spend, and what some of the barriers to entry will continue to be. In the near term with budget constraints domestically and abroad, established OEMs will have a much better chance of maintaining their market share versus new entrants.

Also on Tuesday, GE Aviation Systems presented two of our leading technologies to the open forum on the exhibition floor.

Sam Lassini, Chief Application Engineering for Mission Systems, discussed our innovative SPC (Store Payload Controller) solution for micro-munitions implementation on tactical UAVs. Click on the following link to read more about this SPC.

SPC AUVSI

Mike Feldmann, Chief Engineer for Refueling Technologies, talked about our approach to UAV air-to-air refueling, a technology we call EOGRS (Electro-Optical Grid Reference System). Click on the following link to read more about EOGRS.

EOGRS AUVSI

Tomorrow, I’ll make sure to cover the highlights from some of the other panel sessions and GE Aviation Systems presentations.

Fly safe,

Marc

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After 20 years of working on the development and deployment of this technology, I am greatly encouraged to see the acceleration of interest and activity across the globe in recent weeks.  What is really interesting is the breadth of activity both in terms of geography and the variety of stakeholders who are initiating the activity.  I have collected a sample of headlines from online news just to illustrate my point:

First, it is really interesting to see a resourceful city in Canada working to bring airline service to their airport by offering to underwrite costs for RNP procedures used by WestJet: City commits $350,000 to navigational software if WestJet comes to town via The Source

It is a great relief to see the approval of RNP AR procedures at New York’s JFK airport.  It is, of course, good news for jetBlue, but in time it is expected that this will provide relief for international carriers operating to JFK who are quite capable of RNP AR operations and have multiple deployments around the globe, such as Qantas and Emirates: JetBlue A320s use RNP approaches at New York JFK via ATW Online

After a lot of work by the stakeholders of India, the very first PBN procedure was recently inaugurated by Indigo airlines at Cochin airport in the south of India: IndiGo A320 makes India’s first RNP approach landing via ATW Online  

The changes in navigation and the future upgrade plans of the FAA have begun to capture the interest of the popular media and larger population.  USA Today has a regular feature called “Ask the Captain” that recently addressed this technology: Ask the Captain: How has GPS changed flight navigation? via USA Today 

Africa recently made the news with a new PBN procedure in Liberia that was flown by Delta Air Lines and their technical pilots in a 767: RIA Gets GPS Approach System for Flight Landing Delta Applauded for Pro-Bono Test Validation via Daily Observer, Delta Makes Landmark Landing Using RNAV GPS in Liberia via FrontPageAfrica

Nigeria is encouraging Operators and Pilots to “Key In” to PBN as an important technology for their country: Airlines urged to key into satellite based navigation system via The Nation, NAMA to switch to performance based navigation via Vanguard

After two years of collaborative effort with numerous stakeholders, Brazil recently approved the first RNP AR approaches at Santos Dumont, a challenging airport near downtown Rio de Janeiro: Brazil Approves RNP Approaches via AIN Online

Azul recently announced the kickoff of their own RNP AR program in Brazil for their Embraer E-jet fleet: Brazil’s Azul taps GE for RNP-AR operations via Air Traffic Management 

The CEO of Alaska Airlines, the original pioneer with RNP AR operations, provided more insight into the financial rewards of their program: Alaska Airlines Sees ‘Decent Payback’ from RNP Investment via AIN Online

Alaska Airlines continues to be a pioneer in this field with a new SeaTac procedure introduced in early June with the support of many partners: Sea-Tac airliner tests could yield quieter, more efficient landings via The Seattle Times 

The FAA recently announced a contract with ITT and GE Aviation to deploy public RNP procedures at 5 mid-size airports.  It is the first FAA contract for 3^rd Party PBN in the US: ITT Exelis, GE Naverus Win NextGen RNP Contracts via Inside GNSS

The popular resort town of Sun Valley is an excellent candidate to benefit from RNP AR procedures to improve service at the existing airport: Applaud airport reliability effort via Idaho Mountain Express 

There are challenges to successfully deploy PBN procedures that are seen by communities improving their environment.  Lessons are being learned in Charlotte with the local community groups taking action to what they see as a negative experience with PBN: Charlotte Douglas’ efforts not reducing noise, residents’ attorney says via The Charlotte Observer

The Middle East has joined the community of countries with successful PBN programs with a new RNP AR procedure at Abu Dhabi: Etihad Airways operates a demonstration RNP-AR flight at Abu Dhabi via Airliners Gallery, Airbus and Etihad Airways begin full RNP-AR implementation in Abu Dhabi Terminal Airspace via Airbus 

Malaysia is on track to have a nation-wide network of RNP procedures supplied by GE Aviation in cooperation with Air Asia and other stakeholders: GE Aviation Implementing Nation-wide RNP Program in Malaysia with AirAsia via Market Watch 

 

As you read through these headlines from recent weeks, I hope you have the same impression as me, which is that our industry is embracing PBN technology in unprecedented ways and there is much to celebrate in these successes!

Now, to talk about July, which was a busy month for the aviation world. A few weeks ago, Farnborough hosted our largest industry tradeshow of the year. On July 16, I took part in a first flight in Lima, Peru with LAN Airlines and spent remainder of that week taking part in Latin America’s PBN Summit. Here’s a little more detail on these things:

Farnborough: I was in Rio de Janeiro for customer meetings and wasn’t able to attend this year’s show, but you can check out all the things that GE Aviation did at www.geaviation.com/shows.

As I noted earlier, I recently took part in the first Required Navigation Performance Authorization Required (RNP AR) to Instrument Landing System (ILS) with autoland flight at Lima’s Jorge Chavez International Airport.  LAN Peru Captain Jose Salazar was at the controls of this regularly scheduled passenger flight from Aeroquipa to Lima with LAN Peru VP of Operations Captain Pedro Robles and myself in the flightdeck jumpseats as observers.  This project required a substantial amount of background work with excellent cooperation among all the involved parties.  All of this was evident to me as I watched the elegance of the procedure engineering enable the A319 to transition gracefully from the RNP arrival and approach to the ILS for the automatic landing on Lima Runway 15 at 1502 UTC on July 16^th.  At the transition point from RNP to ILS, there is a complete transition of guidance control laws and I was amazed to see this occur without even the slightest waggle of wings – it was one completely seamless path from top of descent to touchdown.   As the Cat III ILS to Runway 15 at Lima is published shortly, this new integrated deployment will enable airlines to enjoy the efficiency and predictability benefits of RNP operations in all-weather conditions at Lima.

For the remainder of the week, I attended the Latin America PBN Forum in Lima, Peru. The Forum promotes safety, efficiency and collaboration for Latin America’s aviation infrastructure.  It emphasizes collaboration as a way to achieve common goals and brings together key stakeholders to share their needs, vision, knowledge, and plans that can lead to an inclusive and successful PBN implementation in the region. Leaders from regional governments, airlines, airports, regulatory agencies and air navigation service providers participated, as well as global aviation organizations IATA, ICAO, and ALTA.

Lastly, I’d like to thank David Parker Brown – also known as @airlinereporter – for having me guest post on his blog. My fellow GE AvGeeks, Steve Csonka and Dale Carlson, have also posted within the last month. To read my post, click here.

I hope you’ll take a moment to reflect on how much progress we are all making in upgrading airspace operations around the globe!

 

Steve

I had the pleasure of attending this year’s Farnborough International Airshow in jolly ol’ England. While the weather did not cooperate; apparently the United Kingdom is experiencing a rare bout of early summer monsoon, with minor flooding in various spots in the location. Despite the weather, the show went on without any problems.

This year’s show, as before, showcased the latest in aerospace achievement. On the commercial side, Boeing brought in the 787-8 Dreamliner (powered by GEnx engines), in full Qatar livery. Airbus responded with a brand new A380 in Malaysia Airlines colors, and even the A320 with “sharklet” winglet made a brief appearance. On the military side, it was the battle of the gen 4.5 fighters, featuring a trio of Boeing F/A-18E Super Hornet, Saab JAS-39 Gripen, and Eurofighter Typhoon. The contrast between the latest military and civil aircraft is apparent during the airshow, while the crowd is energized by the roar of the jet fighters, they were equally marveled by the quietness of the latest airliners.

From the order book perspective, this year is truly the year of the max, 737 MAX that is. The latest generation of the venerable 737 family received some sizeable orders, including 75 firm orders from Air Lease Corporation and 100 from United Airlines. Of course, all these aircraft will be powered by the latest CFM LEAP-1B engines.

GE Aviation had a strong presence at the show, with a chalet on the flight line and an interactive booth in the exhibition hall. The GEnx engine was a popular attraction, where countless visitors stopped to take pictures. Other interactive displays, which showed various engine and systems products, were also well received. The future visions video, which talked about Aviation Systems vision of the future in ATM, IVHM, and integrated electrical power system, resonated with many of the visitors. Finally, the Nexcelle IPS nacelle display gave people a glimpse of what is possible in propulsion integration.

Here are some snapshots and clips of the airshow. Enjoy!

Farnborough Video 1

Farnborough Video 2

 

 

 

 

 

On May 10, I had the opportunity to speak at a TEDx event in Cincinnati, Oh. The younger brother of the larger TED – Technology, Entertainment, Design – conferences in Long Beach/Palm Springs and the TEDGlobal conference in Edinburgh UK, TEDx’s are locally run but bring the same level of provocative thought and passion.

My presentation reflected what I am passionate about; building highways in the sky. The good people at TEDx Cincy shared a video of my presentation. Watch below and tell me what you think! 

 Jump to http://www.tedxcincy.com/videos/ to see the full run of show from TEDx Cincy’s 2012 Plugged and Unplugged: The Crossroads of Technology and Artisanship

A special thank you to all of the local entrepreneurs, designers, lawyers (and sometimes board-game makers) who coordinated the event. It was great to be around such enthusiastic peers who are trying to change the world in their own special way.

Steve

The looming US budget crisis has been well documented. Sequestration seems to be just around the corner and the defense industry is already bracing for the catastrophic impact of an additional $500 billion cut to the DoD’s budget over the next 10 years. Other countries, especially those in Europe, are also feeling the effects and anticipating drastic austerity measures. What’s lost on some, perhaps, is that there are growth opportunities elsewhere. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, India, and Brazil, are beefing up their defense purchases and capabilities. In fact, the latest projections from SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) indicate that many of these countries will have healthy defense growth rates for the next several years (see Figure 1).

So what’s driving this growth? Well, a number of weapons systems and R&D projects. But certainly UAVs are one of the more important areas. Several well-respected organizations project a tremendous amount of money spent on UAVs over the next 10 years, and this will almost definitely change the landscape of aircraft inventories.  When we consider just the US inventory alone, we see 45 times more UAVs today than we had only 10 years ago (see Figure 2).

When we compare that to the US manned aircraft inventory, the trend becomes quite apparent – we’re steadily moving towards a 50/50 convergence between manned and unmanned assets (see Figure 3). Other countries and regions will follow (some quicker than others) as the US leads the trend.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Much of the growth, both domestically and internationally, can be attributed to the large UAVs. To that point, many countries around the world lack the capabilities and funding to either procure or manufacturer these larger, more complex systems. However, countries such as India and Brazil are forming partnerships today to help build those capabilities now so that, in the not-too- distant future, they can manufacture more expensive systems indigenously. Thus, the larger UAVs will continue to dominate total sales while representing only a small portion of the total volume (see Figure 4).

In terms of UAV growth, it should come as no surprise that the US has been the clear leader for some time now. However, other regions around the world have taken notice and will continue to enhance their defense arsenals by increasing budgets allocated for UAVs. Asia-Pacific and Europe are projected to be the leaders behind the US, with the Middle East, Americas, and Africa rounding out the rest (see Figure 5). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So, I think we can safely reference Malcolm Gladwell and say that we’ve reached the tipping point with respect to UAVs and their manned alternatives. Although we shouldn’t expect to see UAVs performing the more intricate, complex and dynamic missions such as air-to-air combat anytime soon, we should expect to them to take over the dull, dirty, and dangerous ones, thus leading to a strategic shift in aircraft inventories around the world.

Fly safe,

Marc

During the recent Aero Friedrichshafen, Diamond CEO Christian Dries announced that his company was in the process of developing a robotic helicopter, the “Hero”, capable of conducting autonomous missions.

I had to let that news sink in… Sure, we had already witnessed optionally manned DA-42 variants. However, the reader will forgive me if I didn’t see this one coming. It’s one thing to develop a fixed wing aircraft with some sensing capability; it’s a completely different one to develop a rotorcraft (with no prior experience to speak of) that has sufficient processing power to make its own decisions. What’s more, Mr. Dries indicated that the “Hero” has already flown.

So far, not much has been revealed, but for the sake of initiating a discussion we can speculate the following:

• The two engines and associated rotors will likely be placed side by side to improve lateral stability.
• With 250 lbs of sensor equipment and a total weight of just over 1,300 lbs, it’s safe to assume that there won’t be much room for payload. If we compare these basic specs to, say, the “Firescout”, the size of the “Hero” should be substantially smaller. I also suspect that some of the weight savings will come in the form of reduced metal in the fuselage and added composites (as is the case in other Diamond-made fixed-wing products).
• The lack of payload and the stated ability for the “Hero” to hover for 6.5 hours point towards an aircraft that will be only used for reconnaissance and surveillance operations. In that respect, its missions will be more focused than those of Boeing’s Hummingbird, as an example. This assumption seems to be further reinforced by Mr. Dries’ comments that the aircraft can hover for “nearly four hours” over one spot with no mention about range. One has to believe that specific applications removed from the battlefield likely also include border patrol.

At this point my primary thought is whether Diamond has sufficient financial wherewithal to bring the project to completion: we are aware of the delays in the D-Jet program (which, by the way, is a beautiful aircraft), but then again the recent trend towards UAVs appears to give credence to Diamond’s new strategy. And once we find out who is their yet-to-be-named partner, we may be able to put all doubts to rest.

What’s certain is that with the number of players in the UAV market, Diamond will be in good company.

Cheers,

Raf.

Recently, a team composed of Boeing, GE, and Georgia Tech completed an 18-month study on future commercial airplane concepts under the NASA N+3 Program. The goal of the program is to explore revolutionary aircraft concepts aimed at entry into service date of 2030 and beyond, with aggressive noise, emissions, and fuel burn targets. The program looked at both subsonic and supersonic aircraft concepts. The Boeing-led team looked at five different subsonic concepts as part of the Subsonic, Ultra Green Aircraft Research (SUGAR) project. Concepts ranged from a conventional tube and wing design (SUGAR Free and Refined SUGAR) to a high span, strut-braced wing aircraft (SUGAR High and SUGAR Volt), and a hybrid wing body configuration (SUGAR Ray). To read more about Boeing’s technology research and the future of aircraft design, click here.

While not all concepts met the ambitious goal set by NASA, the SUGAR Volt concept, which adds an electric battery gas turbine hybrid propulsion system, can reduce fuel burn by greater than 70%. It also reduces overall energy use by 55% when battery energy is included. With the fuel burn improvement, the aircraft has an added benefit of large reductions of CO2 and nitrous oxide emissions.

What’s preventing engineers from designing such aircraft today? One major challenge is battery technology. While there are rapid advancements in battery technology, a level of energy density suitable for aerospace application is still years away.  Will a hybrid electric open rotor propulsion be the game changing technology the industry is seeking? We hope so. There have been many innovative aircraft concepts that were not adopted due to either the infrastructural or operational constraints. As the price of fuel continues to increase, the industry will hopefully be more acceptable to these innovations.

 

Last fall I found myself in a “spirited” debate with a few of my colleagues about how UAVs would integrate into the Navy’s carrier operations environment (this is what happens when a bunch of ex-naval aviators get together and prognosticate about the future…but I digress). The crux of the discussion was around who would do the majority of adapting: UAVs or the supporting elements onboard the carrier?

As an example, during normal operations LSOs (Landing Signals Officers) are stationed at the aft end of the carrier to ensure the safe and expeditious recovery of all aircraft. They are entrusted by the ship and airwing commanders to help pilots land and, when necessary, visually and verbally communicate signals for pilots to “wave off” and try the landing again. Check out this video of a carrier landing on the flight deck.

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In a similar manner, the deck crews taxi the aircraft around to its final shutdown position using a series of hand and light signals in what can only be described as a chaotic ballet. The video below shows the operations aboard a carrier deck.

 

With the introduction of UAVs into the carrier environment, LSOs, deck crews, and others will have an interesting challenge of safeguarding operations without comprising them. Researchers at MIT are working on a series of exciting experiments to address this issue.

In short, the researchers are “training” UAV sensors to recognize the intricate hand signals and motions that are commonplace on the carrier deck. For example, there are specific motions to taxi forward, right, left, apply brakes, etc. These standardized motions allow the deck crews to “drive” the aircraft into certain positions, often times moving the nosewheel to within inches (yes, inches) of the carrier deck.

Although the technology is nascent, the idea is spot on. Other options include hooking up directly to a UAV and taxiing it around with a joystick (to the elation of all those X-Box players out there) or taxiing via remote control from Vulture’s Row, perhaps.

In terms of landing UAVs on the carrier, the days of LSOs using hand signals is long gone. However, LSOs will continue to have the authority to ensure a clear deck by maintaining wave-off command over UAVs via electronic signals. In other words, if the LSO does not give a green light or if he hits the “pickle” because the deck becomes foul, a signal will be sent to the UAV that will cause it to immediately execute a wave-off and return into the landing pattern for another go-around.

Much work has yet to be done, but the good news is that the best and brightest in the world are beginning to develop innovative solutions.

Fly safe,

Marc